Savant Financial Technologies d/b/a Ariel Partners

1501 Broadway 12th Floor

New York, NY 10036

(646) 467-7394 | fax (413) 541-7781

© 2019

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Training with Ariel
Agile Estimation, Forecasting and Metrics
How can we measure all of our agile teams, regardless of whether they are using Scrum, Kanban, SAFe, waterfall, or any other process?
How can we proactively know when we are not going to make our deadline?
How can we make more accurate forecasts?
Calendar of Upcoming Classes
Wednesday, February 25 2020, 9am - 5pm
Register here.

Agile Estimation, Forecasting and Metrics 

Ariel Partners is offering a one-day workshop focused on estimation, forecasting, and metrics for IT and non-IT stakeholders. This workshop teaches a simple set of powerful techniques that can be used regardless of which methodology you are using and provides a deep dive into Agile forecasting, release planning, and metrics. We will explore different methods for prioritization and estimation, and how probabilistic methods can be used to provide highly reliable estimates. Over the last 5 years, powerful new tools have emerged for agile teams to make estimations and forecasts, and to provide a small set of "metrics that matter."


However, these techniques are not yet well-supported in popular tools and as a result, many teams cling to outdated and debunked estimation practices. This can lead to unrealistic expectations, late projects and a lack of trust in the process. We can fix that.


The techniques we will cover in this course are simpler, more accurate, and require less data than the old way of doing things.


If you are still using story points for estimation, you need this class!

Learning Objectives


Course Details

Learning Objectives

  • Learn ways to provide estimates and accurate forecasts

  • Understand useful metrics that provide early warning signs for monitoring and managing projects

Duration: 1 Day

Date: 02/25/2020

Approach of Delivery: Interactive Workshops & Slides

Timing: 9am-5pm (lunch will be provided)

Prerequisites: None

Class Size: 8-20



Trainer: Craeg Strong

Mr. Craeg Strong, AKT, CSM, CSP, CSD, CSPO, PSM, ITILv3, PMI-ACP, PMP, LeSS, SAFe, is the Founder and CTO of Ariel Partners. He has been in the IT industry since 1988. He works on Large Commercial & Government Projects and is an Agile Coach/DevOps Engineer, Kanban Trainer/SpecFlow ATDD Trainer, and is highly skilled as a Performance & Scalability Architect. He is also a Certified Ethical Hacker, Polyglot Software Developer. Mr. Strong attended MIT for his Computer Science undergraduate studies and holds a DoD Top Secret clearance.

Course Outline

  • Little’s Law, aka the New Iron Triangle: Work in Progress, Cycle Time, and Throughput

  • Cumulative Flow Diagrams

  • Comparing Arrival Rates and Departure rates of work items

  • Cycle Time Scatter Plots

  • Aging Charts

  • Dark Matter versus Scope Creep

  • Cost of Delay versus HiPPO prioritization

  • Estimation: Reversion to the Mean, Data Recency, Handling Outliers, Rule of Five,

  • S-Curve (aka Z-Curve)

  • Monte Carlo Simulations

  • Service Level Expectations / Service Level Agreements

  • Pull Policies: “When Should We Start Working on X”?

  • Conservation of Flow and Flow Debt: Expediting Items

  • Rightsizing versus Estimation

  • Reducing the Cone of Uncertainty

  • Forecasting tools: Nave, Actionable Agile, Forecast Objective, SwiftKanban


With the goal of always delivering the most current and relevant content, please note that the class agenda, contents and schedule, are subject to change.
Substitutions are accepted at any time. Cancellations must be notified by email and refunds will be provided according to the following:
More than 10 days prior = 80% of course fee
5 to 10 days prior = 50% of course fee
Less than 5 days = no refund provided
Ariel Partners reserves the right to postpone or cancel this event if there are insufficient registrations or if presenters are unable to attend due to illness. If necessary, you will be notified no later than 7 days prior to the event and all registration payments will be refunded promptly.  If circumstances require, presenters may be substituted for alternative qualified presenters with equivalent experience.
Please be advised that events can be subject to changes in date and/or venue due to acts out of our control such as bad weather, civil unrest, etc. It is recommended that you purchase changeable and refundable tickets. Ariel Partners will not be responsible for incurred costs in the event that we need to make changes due to circumstances beyond our control.

For more information, please contact us at: